As a critical link between regional economic development and ecological security, understanding the dynamics of water retention is essential for sustainable water resource management in the Huaihe River Economic Belt. This study explores the spatio-temporal evolution and spatial explanatory factors of water retention across five temporal snapshots (2003, 2008, 2013, 2018, and 2023). Based on the InVEST model, we assessed water retention capacity at both grid and spatial development levels, thereby obtaining the retention characteristics of different land-use types and their responses to land-use transitions. Furthermore, a parameter-optimized geographical detector was employed to quantify the relative contributions of climatic-environmental and social-economic factors to the spatial variance of the modeled water retention index. Results indicate that the total water retention capacity exhibited significant interannual fluctuations, with the net capacity in 2023 being lower than the initial level in 2003. Retention values displayed obvious spatial heterogeneity, with high levels concentrated in the southwest and north and low levels distributed in the central area, closely mirroring precipitation distribution. While forest land exhibited the strongest unit water retention capacity, cropland contributed the most to the total volume (50.49%) due to its predominant areal proportion (73.92%). Notably, the conversion of forest to cropland was spatially associated with the most substantial loss in the modeled retention capacity. Soil saturated hydraulic conductivity and land-use type were identified as the dominant factors explaining the spatial variance of water retention. These findings underscore the methodological utility of coupling the InVEST model with a parameter-optimized geographical detector. For practical ecosystem management, the results suggest that spatial planning policies should strictly limit the conversion of ecological lands to agricultural use and prioritize targeted soil hydrological improvements in the central plains to secure long-term water resources.
Zhu et al. (Sat,) studied this question.