This paper proposes a deterministic framework to differentiate between Central-Pacific (CP) and "Super" Eastern-Pacific (EP) El Niño events, focusing on the critical boreal winter and spring transition. By analyzing historical analogs from 1972 to present, the research identifies a Dual-Gate mechanism required for the genesis of Super EP events. The first "gate" is a regional oceanic filter: a Ningaloo Niña state (cold sea surface temperature anomaly off Western Australia) during January–March. This anomaly induces a dynamic back-pressure on the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), constricting the westward drainage of the Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) and forcing a hydrostatic "over-pressurization" of equatorial heat. The second "gate" is a sub-seasonal atmospheric propellant: high-amplitude Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity specifically in Phases 6 and 7 during March–May. This phase alignment is identified as the sufficient trigger for the massive Westerly Wind Bursts (WWBs) necessary to launch an extreme oceanic Kelvin wave. Applying this framework to the 2026 ENSO cycle, the paper argues that while the JFM "Ningaloo Filter" was successfully activated, the realization of a Super EP event remains contingent on impending Phase 6–7 cyclogenesis. The study further examines how this 2026 candidate differs from the 1982 and 1997 analogs due to the absence of volcanic aerosol cooling and the "thermal erosion" of traditional Arctic safety nets (AO-), suggesting unprecedented heat intensity for the upcoming boreal summer.
Antoine Liagre (Tue,) studied this question.
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