What question did this study set out to answer?

The research aims to assess how economic policy uncertainty affects carbon emissions in MENA countries, considering globalization and energy consumption.

April 24, 2026

The Asymmetric Effect of Uncertainty on Environmental Degradation: A Study of the Interactive Role of Globalization and Energy Consumption

Key Points

The research aims to assess how economic policy uncertainty affects carbon emissions in MENA countries, considering globalization and energy consumption.
Utilized a panel NARDL model across 12 MENA countries from 1995 to 2022
Examined the interactive roles of economic policy uncertainty, globalization, and energy consumption
Positive and negative shocks in economic policy uncertainty lead to a long-term increase in CO2 emissions by 0.89% and 0.85% respectively
Globalization decreases emissions by 0.23% but worsens the negative impacts of economic policy uncertainty by 0.21%
Energy consumption predominantly contributes to increasing emissions by 0.88%

Abstract

ABSTRACT The degradation of the environment in the MENA region through the influence of fossil fuel reliance and instability of the policy implies the necessity to investigate the influence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in carbon emissions. Since there is only little and non‐asymmetric evidence on the MENA countries, the study uses a panel NARDL model to test 12 countries (1995–2022) to determine the asymmetric impact of EPU whilst including globalization and energy consumption. The outcomes indicate that positive (0.89%), as well as negative (0.85%) shocks in EPU have a positive long‐term impact on CO 2 emissions. Globalization decreases emissions (0.23%) and aggravates the negative impact of EPU (0.21%), but the impact of energy consumption is majorly positive (0.88%). In the findings, the author highlights that to realize sustainable development in MENA, constant policies, the promotion of renewable energy, and organized regional approaches are necessary.

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