Since 2015, the number of full member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has expanded from six to ten countries. In the 2020s, the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have altered the regional security landscape and economic conditions. The usefulness of the SCO has been demonstrated in its inward-looking security aspects, such as counter-terrorism and regime security. The objective of this paper is to examine the characteristics and changes in regional cooperation within the expanded SCO. The main arguments of this paper are as follows: First, the inward-looking regional cooperation that has driven the SCO since its establishment remains intact. Second, while a non-Western economic space that can circumvent economic sanctions is emerging between the new full member states and China and Russia, there is competition over the integration of Afghanistan. Third, following the withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan, the stabilization of Afghanistan has resurfaced as a priority for both the founding members and the new members of the SCO. In particular, competition between China and Russia has intensified over political and economic influence in Afghanistan. Russia’s decline and a rivalry between India and China could be issues of concern for the balance of power and cohesion within the SCO.
Mihoko Kato (Tue,) studied this question.