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February 11, 2021Aging279 citationsOpen Access

Global incidence and mortality of breast cancer: a trend analysis

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JHJunjie HuangPCPaul ChanVLVeeleah Lok

Key Points

  • To assess global, regional, and age-specific trends in female breast cancer incidence and mortality over the past decade.
  • Extracted country-specific incidence and mortality data from the Global Cancer Observatory (up to 2018), Cancer Incidence in Five Continents volumes I–XI, NORDCAN, SEER, and the WHO mortality database (up to 2016).
  • Calculated temporal patterns using joinpoint regression analysis to determine the Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals across age groups (≥50, <50, and <40 years).
  • Breast cancer incidence increased in most countries, with the steepest increases among women aged ≥50 years observed in Japan (AAPC=5.63, 95% CI: 4.90–6.36), Slovakia (AAPC=3.63, 95% CI: 3.03–4.22), and China (AAPC=2.86, 95% CI: 2.00–3.72).
  • Incidence among young females (<50 years) grew most rapidly in Japan (AAPC=3.81, 95% CI: 2.71–4.93), Germany (AAPC=2.60, 95% CI: 1.41–3.81), and Slovakia (AAPC=1.91, 95% CI: 1.13–2.69), alongside increases in 12 countries for women <40 years.
  • Mortality increased significantly in the Philippines (AAPC=4.36, 95% CI: 3.65–5.07), Thailand (AAPC=4.35, 95% CI: 3.12–5.59), Colombia (AAPC=0.75, 95% CI: 0.08–1.42), and Brazil (AAPC=0.44, 95% CI: 0.19–0.68).

Abstract

This study aimed to evaluate the global incidence and mortality trends of breast cancer among females by region and age in the past decade. We retrieved country-specific incidence and mortality data from the Global Cancer Observatory up to 2018 and Cancer Incidence in Five Continents volumes I-XI, the Nordic Cancer Registries, the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results, and WHO mortality database up to 2016. The temporal patterns were using Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) with the 95% confidence interval (CI) by joinpoint regression analysis. Most countries showed an increasing trend in incidence. For the older population aged ≥ 50 years, Japan (5.63, 4.90-6.36), Slovakia (3.63, 3.03-4.22), China (2.86, 2.00-3.72) reported the most prominent increase. For young females (<50 years), Japan (AAPC=3.81, 95% CI=2.71-4.93), Germany (AAPC=2.60, 95% CI=1.41-3.81) and Slovakia (1.91, 1.13-2.69) reported the most drastic rise. Similarly, 12 countries showed an incidence increase among women aged <40 years. As for mortality, the Philippines (4.36, 3.65-5.07), Thailand (4.35, 3.12-5.59), Colombia (0.75, 0.08-1.42), and Brazil (0.44, 0.19-0.68) reported a significant increase. The disease burden of breast cancer showed an increasing trend in a large number of populations. More preventive efforts are recommended for these countries. Further research should explore the underlying reasons for these epidemiological trends.

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Cite This Study

Huang et al. (2021) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69ff6e4fb124fe5819856d05https://doi.org/10.18632/aging.202502
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