Revisiting trade openness and economic growth nexus in Africa: The role of economic complexity

The relationship between trade openness and economic development remains a persistent and conceptually debated issue in international economics. While much of the literature argues that trade openness promotes economic growth, evidence shows this is not always true, especially for emerging economies with weak global trade integration. Research also suggests that economic complexity can strengthen the trade, growth nexus and enhance global competitiveness, yet most African studies focus solely on trade openness, overlooking the potential role of economic complexity. Grounded in the enhanced endogenous growth hypothesis, this study employs Driscoll and Kraay spatial correlation consistent standard errors and Beck–Katz panel‑corrected standard errors for 1988–2023. The findings reveal that although trade openness significantly enhances economic growth, economic complexity substantially undermines growth in Africa. Moreover, economic complexity negatively moderates the impact of trade openness on growth. The study recommends that African economies adopt transformative strategies to shift from agriculture and extractive industries toward sophisticated manufacturing that upgrades basic goods into more complex products while leveraging their ongoing participation in global trade.