Decadal Variability of the Kuroshio Extension: Observations and an Eddy-Resolving Model Hindcast*

Abstract Low-frequency variability of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) is studied using observations and a multidecadal (1950–2003) hindcast by a high-resolution (0.1°), eddy-resolving, global ocean general circulation model for the Earth Simulator (OFES). In both the OFES hindcast and satellite altimeter observations, low-frequency sea surface height (SSH) variability in the North Pacific is high near the KE front. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis indicates that much of the SSH variability in the western North Pacific east of Japan is explained by two modes with meridional structures tightly trapped along the KE front. The first mode represents a southward shift and to a lesser degree, an acceleration of the KE jet associated with the 1976/77 shift in basin-scale winds. The second mode reflects quasi-decadal variations in the intensity of the KE jet. Both the spatial structure and time series of these modes derived from the hindcast are in close agreement with observations. A linear Rossby wave model forced by observed wind successfully reproduces the time series of the leading OFES modes but fails to explain why their meridional structure is concentrated on the KE front and inconsistent with the broadscale wind forcing. Further analysis suggests that KE variability may be decomposed into broad- and frontal-scale components in the meridional direction—the former following the linear Rossby wave solution and the latter closely resembling ocean intrinsic modes derived from an OFES run forced by climatological winds. The following scenario is suggested for low-frequency KE variability: basin-scale wind variability excites broadscale Rossby waves, which propagate westward, triggering intrinsic modes of the KE jet and reorganizing SSH variability in space.