Ancestral State Estimation and Taxon Sampling Density

A set of experiments based on simulation and analysis found that using the parsimony algorithm for ancestral state estimation can benefit from increased sampling of terminal taxa. Estimation at the base of small clades showed strong sensitivity to tree topology and number of descendent tips. These effects were largely driven by the creation and negation of ambiguity across a topology. Root state and internal state estimation showed similar behavior. We conclude that increased taxon sampling density is generally advisable, and attention to topological effects may be advisable in evaluating the confidence placed in state estimation. We also explore the factors affecting ancestral state estimation and conjecture that as taxa are added to a tree, the total amount of information for root state estimation depends on the tree topology and distance to root state of added taxa. For a pure-birth model tree, we conjecture that the addition of N taxa increases root state information in proportion to log(N).