Cardiorespiratory Fitness in Occupational Groups—Trends over 20 Years and Future Forecasts

BACKGROUND: Reports have indicated a negative trend in cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) in the general population. However, trends in relation to different occupational groups are missing. Therefore, the aim of our study was to examine the trends in CRF during the last 20 years, and to provide a prognosis of future trends in CRF, in different occupational groups of Swedish workers. METHODS: Data from 516,122 health profile assessments performed between 2001 to 2020 were included. CRF was assessed as maximal oxygen consumption and was estimated from a submaximal cycling test. Analyses include CRF as a weighted average, standardized proportions with low CRF (<32 mL/min/kg), adjusted annual change in CRF, and forecasting of future trends in CRF. RESULTS: There was a decrease in CRF over the study period, with the largest decrease in both absolute and relative CRF seen for individuals working in administrative and customer service (-10.1% and -9.4%) and mechanical manufacturing (-6.5% and -7.8%) occupations. The greatest annual decrease was seen in transport occupations (-1.62 mL/min/kg, 95% CI -0.190 to -0.134). Men and younger individuals had in generally a more pronounced decrease in CRF. The proportion with a low CRF increased, with the greatest increase noted for blue-collar and low-skilled occupations (range: +19% to +27% relative change). The forecast analyses predicted a continuing downward trend of CRF. CONCLUSION: CRF has declined in most occupational groups in Sweden over the last two decades, with a more pronounced decline in blue-collar and low-skilled occupational groups.