• Evaluates local precious metals market efficiency (Gold, Silver) using data from seven markets in their local currencies, rather than US Dollars. • The efficiency of the two precious metals varies over time across both developed and emerging markets without a pattern, indicating heterogeneity within each metal and local market. • This heterogeneity is likely driven by non-quantitative factors and differences in local market structures for each metal, such as several being on exchange, others operating as OTC markets and some operating as bar and coin markets. • Inefficiencies may necessitate risk management approaches unique to each local market. • Asynchronous efficiency provided further evidence for the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis. This study examines the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) in locally denominated precious metals markets across six countries, where prior research has focused on U.S. dollar-denominated prices. Using linear and nonlinear methods: the Automatic Portmanteau, Wild Bootstrap Automatic Variance Ratio, and Generalised Spectral tests, we analyse the evolving efficiency of these markets over time. Our findings reveal that market inefficiencies fluctuate, driven by factors such as regulatory controls, cultural dynamics, and market structure. These inefficiencies create predictable trading opportunities, particularly in the gold-Swiss sector, and underscore the importance of localised portfolio risk management strategies.
Rana et al. (Fri,) studied this question.