Rapid agricultural growth is intensifying the pressure on land resources in the dry-hot valley regions of Southwest China. Assessing the impact of land use/cover change (LUCC) on ecosystem services (ESs) and clarifying the optimal land use/cover pattern are crucial for promoting sustainable development. This study analyzed the responses of four ESs, including water yield (WY), soil retention (SR), carbon sequestration (CS), and food production (FP), to LUCC in Yuanmou County, Yunnan Province of China, from 2002 to 2022, a representative dry-hot valley region of Southwest China, and examined their interrelationships using statistical approaches. Moreover, this study also projected the future land use/cover patterns and explored the optimal pattern based on ecological security. Large-scale land consolidation resulted in a substantial increase in cropland from 2002 to 2022, which was accompanied by significant reductions in grassland and barren land, leading to a considerable increase in the total ecosystem service value (ESV). During this period, FP increased steadily, whereas WY, SR, and CS declined initially during early land consolidation, subsequently exhibiting divergent trends, with SR and CS showing modest increases and WY showing a slight decrease. Generally, synergy among the four ESs was observed during 2002–2022, although FP caused the decline of other ESs during certain periods. The optimal land use/cover pattern for maximizing ecological security, with cropland and forest accounting for 36.24% and 35.63% of the total area, respectively, indicates that expanding cropland while protecting forest could enhance regional ecological security effectively. Our findings provide practical strategies for managing and conserving dry-hot valley regions in Southwest China.
Li et al. (Fri,) studied this question.