Health Care in 2030: Will Artificial Intelligence Replace Physicians?

Ideas and Opinions19 March 2019Health Care in 2030: Will Artificial Intelligence Replace Physicians?Nirav R. Shah, MD, MPHNirav R. Shah, MD, MPHClinical Excellence Research Center, Stanford University, Stanford, California (N.R.S.)Author, Article, and Disclosure Informationhttps://doi.org/10.7326/M19-0344 SectionsAboutFull TextPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissions ShareFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail In 2016, the world chess champion was a computer program named Stockfish 8. That a computer was the reigning champion is no surprise—Stockfish is programmed with centuries of accumulated human knowledge of chess and can examine 70 million positions per second. This changed in 2017 with the introduction of Google's AlphaZero (1).Coders gave AlphaZero just 1 input: the rules of the game. After only 9 hours of training, AlphaZero scored 28 wins and 72 draws in a 100-game match against Stockfish. It did not lose a game. Instead of building on centuries of human knowledge, it started with a ...References1. Silver D, Hubert T, Schrittwieser J, Antonoglou I, Lai M, Guez A, et al. A general reinforcement learning algorithm that masters chess, shogi, and Go through self-play. Science. 2018;362:1140-4. PMID: 30523106 doi:10.1126/science.aar6404 CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar2. Somers J. How the artificial-intelligence program AlphaZero mastered its games. The New Yorker. 28 December 2018. Accessed at www.newyorker.com/science/elements/how-the-artificial-intelligence-program-alphazero-mastered-its-games on 5 February 2019. Google Scholar3. Adeptus Health. 2019. Accessed at https://adpt.com on 5 February 2019. Google Scholar4. CityMD. 2018. Accessed at www.citymd.com on 5 February 2019. Google Scholar5. Forward. 2019. Accessed at https://goforward.com on 5 February 2019. Google Scholar6. ChenMed. 2019. Accessed at www.chenmed.com on 5 February 2019. Google Scholar7. Oak Street Health. 2018. Accessed at www.oakstreethealth.com on 5 February 2019. Google Scholar8. Simon M, Choudhry NK, Frankfort J, Margolius D, Murphy J, Paita L, et al. Exploring attributes of high-value primary care. Ann Fam Med. 2017;15:529-34. PMID: 29133491 doi:10.1370/afm.2153 CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar9. National Education Association. An educator's guide to the "four Cs": preparing 21st century students for a global society. Accessed at www.nea.org/assets/docs/A-Guide-to-Four-Cs.pdf on 5 February 2019. Google Scholar Author, Article, and Disclosure InformationAffiliations: Clinical Excellence Research Center, Stanford University, Stanford, California (N.R.S.)Disclaimer: Dr. Shah served as a scholar in residence with Adeptus Health in 2018. His primary appointment is at Stanford's Clinical Excellence Research Center. He has no financial interests or affiliations with any of the other companies mentioned.Disclosures: Disclosures can be viewed at www.acponline.org/authors/icmje/ConflictOfInterestForms.do?msNum=M19-0344.Corresponding Author: Nirav R. Shah, MD, MPH, Stanford CERC, 75 Alta Road, Stanford, CA 94305; e-mail, nirav.email protectededu.Author Contributions: Conception and design: N.R. Shah.Analysis and interpretation of the data: N.R. Shah.Drafting of the article: N.R. Shah.Critical revision of the article for important intellectual content: N.R. Shah.Final approval of the article: N.R. Shah.Provision of study materials or patients: N.R. Shah.Statistical expertise: N.R. Shah.Obtaining of funding: N.R. Shah.Administrative, technical, or logistic support: N.R. Shah.Collection and assembly of data: N.R. Shah.This article was published at Annals.org on 26 February 2019. PreviousarticleNextarticle Advertisement FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Metrics Cited byThree ways of knowing: the integration of clinical expertise, evidence-based medicine, and artificial intelligence in assisted reproductive technologiesHeart analytics: Analytical modeling of cardiovascular careArtificial intelligence in the management and treatment of burns: a systematic reviewSecond-Generation Digital Health Platforms: Placing the Patient at the Center and Focusing on Clinical OutcomesPositionspapier "Digitalisierung in der Chirurgie" – Konsequenzen?Application of Artificial Intelligence in the Health Care Safety Context: Opportunities and ChallengesArtificial Intelligence in Medicine: Today and TomorrowFuturos de la inteligencia artificialA bird's-eye view of deep learning in bioimage analysisMachine learning applications in the diagnosis of leukemia: Current trends and future directionsArtificial Intelligence Systems Assisting Oncologists? Resist and Desist or Enlist and CoexistHeart Analytics: Analytical Modeling of Cardiovascular CareFrom a Digital Bottle: A Message to Ourselves in 2039Current status and future direction of digital health in Korea 19 March 2019Volume 170, Issue 6Page: 407-408KeywordsAlgorithmsCreativityDiagnostic radiologyForecastingGamesHealth carePatientsSoftware toolsTechnicians ePublished: 26 February 2019 Issue Published: 19 March 2019 Copyright & PermissionsCopyright © 2019 by American College of Physicians. All Rights Reserved.PDF downloadLoading ...