National forest cover change baselines for six countries of the Congo basin using open-source solutions and sample-based area estimates (2015–2023)

Abstract Forest ecosystems play an essential role in mitigating the global climate crisis, while supporting the livelihoods of millions of people. Central Africa’s Congo basin hosts the largest continuous tract of forest on the African continent, providing essential resources to local communities and harboring extensive biodiversity. With a rapidly growing human population and both local and international demand for natural resources, the threats to these forests are expected to increase. Accurate, statistically validated estimates of recent deforestation and degradation are needed to support sustainable development, forest conservation and focus mitigating interventions. A regional collaborative effort has produced the first systematically and statistically validated remote sensing assessment of both deforestation and degradation in six Congo basin countries for 2015–2023, while identifying the associated direct drivers of anthropogenic disturbance. Our analysis of satellite data over eight years, along with statistically derived confidence intervals indicates that deforestation in the study region comprising six countries is largely stable, while degradation is more dynamic and growing in some countries, which may reflect the opening of new deforestation fronts. The main drivers of forest loss are small-scale agriculture, artisanal and industrial forestry. The presence of industrial drivers is more limited, although they might have a more permanent impact on land cover and biomass. This methodology and results are crucial for motivating new finance mechanisms and interventions in the Central African region to help stabilize deforestation rates, ensure food security and resist new pressures.