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OBJECTIVE: To determine the extent of, and reasons for, ethnic differences in type 2 diabetes incidence in the U.K. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Population-based triethnic cohort. Participants were without diabetes, aged 40-69 at baseline (1989-1991), and followed-up for 20 years. Baseline measurements included fasting and postglucose bloods, anthropometry, and lifestyle questionnaire. Incident diabetes was identified from medical records and participant recall. Ethnic differences in diabetes incidence were examined using competing risks regression. RESULTS: Incident diabetes was identified in 196 of 1,354 (14%) Europeans, 282 of 839 (34%) Indian Asians, and 100 of 335 (30%) African Caribbeans. All Indian Asians and African Caribbeans were first-generation migrants. Compared with Europeans, age-adjusted subhazard ratios (SHRs 95% CI) for men and women, respectively, were 2.88 (95%, 2.36-3.53; P < 0.001) and 1.91 (1.18-3.10; P = 0.008) in Indian Asians, and 2.23 (1.64-3.03; P < 0.001) and 2.51 (1.63-3.87; P < 0.001) in African Caribbeans. Differences in baseline insulin resistance and truncal obesity largely attenuated the ethnic minority excess in women (adjusted SHRs: Indian Asians 0.77 0.49-1.42; P = 0.3; African Caribbeans 1.48 0.89-2.45; P = 0.13), but not in men (adjusted SHRs: Indian Asians 1.98 1.52-2.58; P < 0.001 and African Caribbeans, 2.05 1.46-2.89; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Insulin resistance and truncal obesity account for the twofold excess incidence of diabetes in Indian Asian and African Caribbean women, but not men. Explanations for the excess diabetes risk in ethnic minority men remains unclear. Further study requires more precise measures of conventional risk factors and identification of novel risk factors.
Tillin et al. (Mon,) studied this question.