Analysis of land use and land cover spatial pattern based on Markov chains modelling

Abstract Background Population growth and the expansion of cities together with an increase in environmental pollution from human activity create non-principled changes in vegetative cover and land use in forestland built-up areas and agricultural land and increase the exertion of non-principled land productivity methods. Methods In this study, the proximity to and the amount of agricultural and forestland were used in the analysis and modeling of the land use changes. The probability of the conversion of agricultural and forestland to built-up areas use was modeled using the Markov chain. Results The results indicate that the southern part of Gorgan ranked first in likelihood of the land use/land cover (LULC) change. It is necessary to implement procedures to control the change of high-grade agricultural land and Naharkhoran forestland to built-up areas. Conclusions It is clear that without attention to planning for protective procedures, the trend toward changing agricultural and forestland to built-up areas will continue and have adverse effects on the regional environment.