What question did this study set out to answer?

This study aims to create and validate the SR-HCC score nomogram for predicting spontaneous rupture in hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

May 28, 2026Open Access

SR-HCC Score: A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Spontaneous Rupture in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

Key Points

This study aims to create and validate the SR-HCC score nomogram for predicting spontaneous rupture in hepatocellular carcinoma patients.
Retrospective cohort study of 186 HCC patients from The Third People’s Hospital of Kunming, randomly split into training (80%) and validation (20%) sets.
Utilized univariate and multivariate logistic regression to identify independent predictors for the nomogram.
Model performance assessed through Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves.
Key predictors for spontaneous rupture included tumor diameter (3–5 cm and 5–10 cm), number of tumors (2–3), and AFP ≥ 100 ng/mL.
Nomogram demonstrated excellent discrimination with AUC = 0.9617 in training and 0.9630 in validation.
Calibration indicated predicted probabilities closely matched observed outcomes.

Abstract

Siyuan Gao,1, Xiuling Zhang,1, Ting Jia,1 Qiu Jin,1 Xiaodong Yang,1 Ruisi Zhao,2 Jianpeng Gao3,4 1Liver Center, The Third Peopleâs Hospital of Kunming, Kunming, Yunnan, 650041, Peopleâs Republic of China; 2Department of Biomedical Sciences and Biotechnology, Hong Kong Metropolitan University, Hongkong, 999077, Peopleâs Republic of China; 3Cell and Gene Therapy Research Center, Shenzhen Ruipuxun Academy for Stem Cell 4Department of Gastroenterology, Yanâan Hospital Affiliated to Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan, 650051, Peopleâs Republic of ChinaThese authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Jianpeng Gao, Email gaojianpengkm@163.comPurpose: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) Spontaneous rupture (srHCC) is a life-threatening complication with a high mortality rate; however, no integrated predictive tool exists. This study aimed to develop and validate a novel nomogram (SR-HCC score) for srHCC risk prediction using a combination of clinical, radiological, and laboratory parameters.Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 186 HCC patients from The Third Peopleâs Hospital of Kunming (2010â 2025), randomly split into training (80%) and validation (20%) sets. Covariates included demographic, tumor-related, and laboratory indices. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent predictors that were integrated into the nomogram. Model performance was evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves (discrimination) and calibration curves.Results: Key independent predictors of srHCC included tumor diameter (3â 5 cm and 5â 10 cm), number of tumors (2â 3), capsular protrusion, Alpha-Fetoprotein (AFP) â¥ 100 ng/mL, moderate ÎALT (0â 200 U/L, inverse association), and ÎAST > 200 U/L. The nomogram achieved excellent discrimination (Area Under the Curve, AUC = 0.9617 in the training set; 0.9630 in the validation set) and good calibration, with predicted probabilities that closely matched the observed outcomes.Conclusion: SR-HCC score is a reliable and user-friendly tool for individualized srHCC risk stratification. This enables clinicians to prioritize preventive interventions and optimize surveillance, especially in resource-limited settings, ultimately improving patient outcomes by preventing catastrophic ruptures.Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, spontaneous rupture, nomogram, SR-HCC score, risk prediction

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Gao et al. (Fri,) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a17db293fad632b0f9d7ea2 https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2147/jhc.s600415

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