AI-Driven Bayesian Deep Learning for Lung Cancer Prediction: Precision Decision Support in Big Data Health Informatics

Lung-cancer incidence is projected to rise by 50% by 2035, underscoring the need for accurate yet accessible risk-stratification tools. We trained a Bayesian neural network on 300 annotated chest-CT scans from the public LIDC–IDRI cohort, integrating clinical metadata. Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo sampling (10 000 posterior draws) captured parameter uncertainty; performance was assessed with stratified five-fold cross-validation and on three independent multi-centre cohorts. On the locked internal test set, the model achieved 99.0% accuracy, AUC = 0.990 and macro-F1 = 0.987. External validation across 824 scans yielded a mean AUC of 0.933 and an expected calibration error <0.034, while eliminating false positives for benign nodules and providing voxel-level uncertainty maps. Uncertainty-aware Bayesian deep learning delivers state-of-the-art, well-calibrated lung-cancer risk predictions from a single CT scan, supporting personalised screening intervals and safe deployment in clinical workflows.