Victimization Rates, Safety and Fear of Crime

A model is postulated of how victimization rates, safety and fear of crime interrelate. Certain population groups and cities show higher levels of fear of crime but lower measured victimization rates. According to the model this can happen because certain groups that do have higher “real” risks of victimization expose themselves less to crime and hence show lower measured victimization rates. The model also implies that even though victimization rates correct for underreporting of crime, they may still not be the correct calibrator of safety because they do not take into account exposure to crime. Measured victimization rates can be both positively and inversely related to the “real” risk of crime. A preliminary test of the model is made using cross-sectional city level data on both victimization rates and attitudes from the recent National Crime Survey. The analysis shows that fear of crime has higher correlations with victimization rates adjusted for exposure than the usually measured victimization rates reported by the government, and that exposure appears to be negatively related to fear of crime.