Uncertainty beyond sampling error

Abstract The genomes of humans outside Africa originated almost entirely from a single migration out ∼50,000-60,000 years ago1,2, followed closely by mixture with Neanderthals contributing ∼2% to all non-Africans3,4. However, the details of this initial migration remain poorly-understood because no ancient DNA analyses are available from this key time period, and present-day autosomal data are uninformative due to subsequent population movements/reshaping5. One locus, however, does retain extensive information from this early period: the Y-chromosome, where a detailed calibrated phylogeny has been constructed6. Three present-day Y lineages were carried by the initial migration: the rare haplogroup D, the moderately rare C, and the very common FT lineage which now dominates most non-African populations6,7. We show that phylogenetic analyses of haplogroup C, D and FT sequences, including very rare deep-rooting lineages, together with phylogeographic analyses of ancient and present-day non-African Y-chromosomes, all point to East/South-east Asia as the origin 50,000-55,000 years ago of all known non-African male lineages (apart from recent migrants). This implies that the initial Y lineages in populations between Africa and eastern Asia have been entirely replaced by lineages from the east, contrasting with the expectations of the serial-founder model8,9, and thus informing and constraining models of the initial expansion.