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The rapid pace of solid state technological development over the past four decades has resulted in almost universal acceptance of the phrase "Moore's Law, " whether it is used accurately to refer to the exponential increase in computer processor power or to refer to some more amorphous scope of rapid change. More recent breakthroughs in LED science and engineering have precipitated a vigorous discussion of the depth and pace with which solid state light sources will penetrate the 50-billion world-wide lighting market. This discussion has not two perspectives but many, and each perspective can provide valuable insight into key issues that will determine the role that solid state technology will play in the lighting market of 2020 and beyond.
Douglas Kirkpatrick (Mon,) studied this question.