An early-stage embodied carbon assessment method for the Global South: Sri Lankan case study

Purpose Quantifying embodied carbon (EC) is essential for mitigating climate change impacts and reducing excessive use of natural and non-renewable materials. Yet, many Global South countries face several challenges such as data limitations, technical capacity gaps and limited use of EC assessment tools, particularly at early design stage where the greatest reduction potential exists. This study therefore aims to develop an accessible early design stage EC assessment model to support more effective EC management. Design/methodology/approach This study employs a mono-method quantitative approach using secondary data from 25 office building projects in Sri Lanka. Data for model development were extracted from architectural drawings and bills of quantities (BOQs) to determine material quantities, while EC coefficients were obtained from Inventory of carbon and energy (ICE) v3.0. Model development integrated multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with life cycle assessment (LCA) principle. Findings The findings indicate that the developed model provides accurate and reliable EC estimates using a limited set of early design parameters. Gross internal floor area (GIFA) and external wall area (EWA) were found to be the most influential in determining EC estimations. Practical implications The model provides built environment professionals with a practical and time-efficient tool for estimating EC at the early design stage, supporting informed design decisions, wider adoption in data-scarce contexts, and improved carbon management in the Global South. Originality/value This study is distinctive in providing an accessible EC assessment model specifically tailored to the constraints of Global South contexts, where limited data and technical capacity often hinder effective carbon management.