Provincial Nominee Programs: An Evaluation of the Earnings and Settlement Rates of Nominees

Provincial Nominee programs have increased the role of the provinces in selecting immigrants to Canada. We use administrative data to compare the earnings and settlement rates of Provincial Nominees (PNs) and immigrants through comparable federal programs, such as economic class immigrants (ECIs). We find that PNs experienced higher entry earnings, but slower subsequent earnings growth. While differences in observable characteristics of immigrants through the two programs played a nominal role in accounting for differences in entry earnings, they were more important in accounting for differences in subsequent earnings growth. Further, we find that PNs were more likely than ECIs to stay in the province to which they were initially destined, and that differences in observable characteristics account for most of the higher settlement rate of PNs.