New Approach to Prehistoric Migrations: Bayesian Chronological Modelling and Ceramic Technology shed new Light on the Emergence of Corded Ware

Abstract Recent advances in ancient DNA and isotope analysis have enabled archaeologists to detect migration events in the distant past. Yet, novel approaches evaluating the cultural impact of these migrations are lacking. As a result, archaeologists continue to debate problematic culture-historical scenarios in which migrants rapidly supplant passive indigenous communities. This study outlines a bottom-up, quantitative approach to prehistoric migrations. This approach uses Bayesian chronological modelling to investigate whether migrating and indigenous communities co-existed. In addition, a novel probabilistic comparison of ceramic technology traces whether cultural knowledge is exchanged between potters in these communities. This approach is applied to the emergence of Corded Ware communities in the Netherlands during the 3rd millennium BC. The outcomes demonstrate that this process was not a rapid replacement of indigenous groups by migrants, as sometimes stated. Instead, migrants likely co-existed with indigenous communities for centuries, learned ceramic production from them, and incorporated this knowledge into the production of characteristic Corded Ware ceramics. Furthermore, the outcomes suggest this scenario was likely commonplace for prehistoric migration in the 3rd and 4th millennia BC. As such, this study provides new approaches and insights which enable archaeologists to shed light on prehistoric migration, talk back to archaeogenetics on an equal footing, and contribute to broader societal debates on migration.