Mapping regional vulnerability in Europe’s energy transition: development and application of an indicator to assess declining employment in four carbon-intensive industries

Abstract Europe’s transition to an energy system compatible with limiting global heating to 1.5 °C will require radical changes in energy systems. While this will create substantial new growth industries in clean technologies, some currently important economic activities will decline. The impacts of that transition will not be the same for all regions. We map the economic vulnerability of European regions to ambitious decarbonisation scenarios in terms of employment losses in four carbon-intensive industries. To do so, we develop a composite vulnerability indicator that combines each region’s share of employment in those high-carbon industries with other dimensions of vulnerability and resilience. We then explore how regional patterns of vulnerability are influenced by the technology pathway to 2050, using four scenarios modelled using the European PRIMES model. We show that economic vulnerability to the low-carbon transition is regionally concentrated, with some regions combining high employment shares in industries expected to decline with weak adaptive capacity and high pre-existing unemployment. We also show that there is little variation in regional vulnerability arising from different transition pathways. All scenarios compatible with 1.5 °C involve large declines in all high-carbon sectors we analyse, and as a result, scenario variation does not lead to large variation in relative vulnerability of regions. The results highlight regions that may be in need of additional policy support to diversify their economies and achieve a just transition.