The Far East’s Transport Complex: Structural Changes against the Backdrop of General Economic Dynamics and Geopolitical Shocks

Abstract The transport complex of the Russian Far East acts as the closing link in the national transport system in interactions with Asian countries. The state allocates resources for infrastructure development, and the intensity of regulation increases. This defines the aim of the study: to analyze the impact of general economic conditions, noneconomic shocks, and government regulation on the parameters of the Far East transport complex in 2000–2023. For this, the territory of the Far Eastern Federal District is divided into the southern (mainline transit of extraregional cargo in the direction of seaports) and northern (servicing mainly intraregional turnover) zones. The unevenness of the general economic dynamics is taken into account by dividing the 2000–2023 interval into six periods: three periods of conditional stability and growth (2000–2007, 2010–2013, 2016–2019) and three periods of crisis (2008–2009, 2014–2015, 2020–2023). Based on official statistical data and using the shift-share analysis, the national, regional, and industry components of the dynamics (investments, GVA, number of employees) were calculated for two transport zones of the Far East in each time period. It is shown that the state’s focus on developing a latitudinal transit corridor resulted in higher performance in the southern transport zone of the Far Eastern Federal District and the predominance of the regional component in the structure of investment dynamics, beginning in 2008–2009. The dynamics of transport GVA during 2000–2023 were determined by the national component for both the southern and northern transport zones; its change was not symmetrical to investment growth. Employment in the transport sector in individual periods prior to 2016 was more closely linked to economic dynamics. Furthermore, its change, in addition to the general trends of the national labor market, is also explained by the specifics of the human resource policy of individual types of transport.