Standard Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methods assume fixed service lives for building envelope components and therefore overlook the additional embodied burdens caused by hazard-induced replacements. Wind hazards, in particular, pose a significant threat to building envelope components in hurricane-prone regions, yet their effect on cumulative embodied impacts remains unquantified in standard practice. This study presents a probabilistic framework that couples component-level fragility modeling with regional wind hazard recurrence to produce hazard-adjusted embodied environmental metrics, an extension not provided by conventional LCA or existing risk-based LCA approaches. The framework calculates Annual Damage Probability (ADP) by integrating lognormal fragility curves (parameterized with median wind capacity (μ) and dispersion (β)) with site-specific wind hazard recurrence data from ASCE 7-22. ADP is converted into a Hazard-Based Replacement Frequency (HRF) over a 100-year design life and applied to EPD-reported embodied impacts to produce adjusted Global Warming Potential (GWP, kg CO 2 -eq/m 2 ) and Primary Energy Demand (PED, MJ/m 2 ). A case study in Port Arthur, Texas evaluates five roofing systems, five wall claddings, and three window types. Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 runs) propagates uncertainty in fragility parameters, and a sensitivity analysis examines the influence of β values ranging from 0.20 to 0.40. Components combining low wind resistance with high base embodied impacts show the most pronounced increases: insulated metal panels and EIFS each exceed five times their base values, wood-frame windows reach an adjusted GWP of 456 kg CO 2 -eq/m 2 , and asphalt shingles accumulate nearly five times their base GWP. More wind-resistant systems—modified bitumen roofing, concrete tile, and fiber-cement claddings, show minimal adjustment. GWP and PED do not consistently rank materials in the same order, demonstrating that neither indicator alone captures environmental performance under hazard exposure. Relying solely on base EPD values systematically understates cumulative embodied impacts in hurricane-prone regions, and wind resistance should be integrated into sustainable material selection decisions. The framework is transferable to other hazard types, building typologies, and impact categories, offering a practical, climate resilience-informed extension of standard LCA practice.
Aghdam et al. (Mon,) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: