Evolution of carbon emissions in China’s construction industry and its influencing factors from a spatiotemporal perspective under the background of dual carbon goals

The construction industry, a key emission sector, generates a large amount of carbon dioxide at every stage of its life cycle. As a major carbon-emitting country with accelerating urbanization and a large building stock, China finds it essential to study carbon-reduction strategies for its construction industry. This paper employs life cycle assessment (LCA) to calculate carbon emissions across four key stages: raw material extraction, onsite construction, building operation, and waste disposal. Furthermore, a social network model has been developed to analyze the spatial correlation network structure of carbon emission intensity within the construction industry. The quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) regression model is employed to examine the factors influencing this spatial network structure. The main conclusions drawn from the simulation analysis are as follows: (1) the building operation stage, characterized by the highest carbon emissions, is identified as a critical factor for carbon reduction in China’s construction industry. (2) Carbon emissions and emission intensity within the construction industry demonstrate a temporal and spatial transfer pattern, spreading from the southeastern region to the eastern and central regions and subsequently to the more remote northern areas. (3) Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Henan are at the center of the spatial correlation network, whereas Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Xinjiang are at the periphery of the network. (4) The factors influencing carbon emission intensity in China’s construction industry, in order of impact, are spatial correlation, differences in economic development levels, and variations in industrial structure.