We study the extreme behavior of six central Chile glacier mass balance series facing significant retreats and ice wastage due to climate variability and change. This has led to reduced meltwater availability in dry seasons, increasing competition for downstream water resources. Understanding glacier mass balances is crucial for predicting future water availability in scenarios with higher water demands. We used Extreme Value Theory tools to analyze the data and identify extreme events. The main objective of this study is to statistically analyze glacier mass losses in Chile, using mass balance data collected from both national and international sources. The results show high heterogeneity in the extreme behavior of glaciers, with some showing an approximately exponential tail (Guanaco Glacier), others exhibiting stability with slight tails (Echaurren Norte and Mocho Glaciers) and one (Amarillo Glacier) with a highly unstable structure. The other analyzed glaciers (Juncal Norte and Juncal Sur) have slight and potentially limited tails. These results confirm the high importance of studying glaciers in the Andes in order to better understand their responses to climate change, an important and relevant aspect for the future management of glacier melt water resources.
Stehlík et al. (2026) studied this question.