Niche grain production as a diversification strategy for sustainability and risk resilience: evidence from Ukraine

Purpose. Grain crops play a pivotal role in providing global food security. The goal of this study is to assess the diversification level in production of niche grain crops and develop models to clarify its patterns focusing specifically on Ukrainian agriculture as it navigates through the unprecedented crisis caused by the Russian military invasion. Methodology. The methodological framework of the research includes methods of comparative analysis, cluster modelling, and optimisation theory. The examined statistical data for 2019–2025 were retrieved from official websites and reliable online sources. This approach underpins substantiated recommendations on how niche grain production can remain resilient in times of turbulence and shocks. Results. The article findings highlight that, owing to exceptional environmental and economic advantages, the production of buckwheat, millet, oats, and rye complies with the principles of green and circular economies, reducing waste, dependence on chemical inputs, and and requirements for of natural resource quality. Balanced diversification of niche grain crops results in higher adaptability to climatic patterns and pricing uncertainty, as observed in Ukraine during wartime. Optimisation models of regional clusters and scenario analysis suggest workable management approaches to develop sustainable and highly beneficial cultivation strategies. Originality. The novelty of the work lies in the mathematical integration of production indicators (volumes and harvested areas) with market and environmental dynamics (prices and yields), which together uncover untapped potential for fostering diversified cultivation of niche grain crops in unstable natural and market environments. Practical implications. The major practical value of the research outcomes stems from the fact that the development of niche grain crop production can provide nutritious healthy food, enhance biodiversity, improve soil parameters, shorten supply chains, and empower smallholder farmers to remain competitive regardless of risks and external pressure.