Purpose This paper examines the relationship between the depletion of non-renewable natural resources and sovereign debt-service pressures in African economies. While resource wealth is often associated with expanded fiscal space, less attention has been given to how the drawdown of natural capital relates to debt-servicing capacity over time. Anchored in a wealth-accounting framework, the study explores whether patterns of resource extraction are systematically associated with tighter future debt constraints and whether fiscal and institutional conditions moderate this relationship. Design/methodology/approach The study employs an unbalanced panel of African economies over the period 1990–2024. A pooled mean group autoregressive distributed lag (PMG–ARDL) error-correction framework is used to distinguish short-run dynamics from long-run relationships. The specification integrates indicators of natural resource depletion, and resource rents with external debt stocks, economic growth and external balance conditions. To strengthen inference, the analysis incorporates lag structures, sub-sample estimations and fixed-effects models with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors to address cross-sectional dependence and heteroskedasticity. Findings The results indicate a robust positive association between natural resource depletion and long-run debt-service pressures, particularly when debt service is measured relative to exports. ANS are associated with lower long-run debt burdens, suggesting that stronger savings performance helps mitigate vulnerability. Resource rents provide limited and short-lived relief, especially under volatile commodity price conditions. The strength of these relationships varies across country groupings and fiscal contexts, with evidence that stronger fiscal and institutional frameworks are associated with a weaker transmission from depletion to debt stress. Research limitations/implications The analysis is subject to limitations related to endogeneity and measurement. Indicators such as ANS and resource depletion are composite and may contain measurement noise, particularly in low-income settings. While lag structures and robustness checks strengthen the temporal interpretation, the results should be understood as indicative long-run associations rather than definitive causal effects. Future research could explore stronger identification strategies, including quasi-experimental designs or country-specific analyses and further examine how institutional quality and fiscal rules shape the link between natural capital management and debt sustainability. Practical implications The findings suggest that debt sustainability frameworks in resource-rich economies should move beyond short-term fiscal indicators to incorporate the management of natural capital. Policymakers should prioritise mechanisms that convert resource rents into productive assets, including stronger fiscal rules, sovereign wealth funds and investment in human and physical capital. Improving the transparency and governance of resource revenues can also reduce vulnerability to commodity price shocks. More broadly, aligning extraction strategies with long-term fiscal planning may help reduce the recurrence of debt distress in African economies. Social implications The results suggest that unsustainable resource extraction can have broader social consequences by weakening the long-term capacity of governments to finance public goods. When natural wealth is depleted without adequate reinvestment, fiscal pressures may translate into reduced spending on health, education and infrastructure. This can deepen inequality and limit inclusive development, particularly in resource-dependent economies. Strengthening the governance of resource revenues and aligning them with long-term development priorities may therefore support more stable social outcomes and improve intergenerational equity. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature by reframing debt sustainability in resource-rich economies through a wealth-accounting perspective that integrates natural resource depletion and ANS into a unified empirical framework. Unlike much of the existing work, which treats resource wealth and debt dynamics separately, the study brings these elements together within a long-run error-correction setting. By combining panel econometric methods with a focus on intertemporal resource management, the paper offers new empirical insights into how the erosion of natural capital relates to debt vulnerability in African economies.
Tafadzwa Luke Mupingashato (Mon,) studied this question.