How have the strategic partnerships between China and Japan with ASEAN transformed since the end of the Cold War, and what drives the divergence in their respective trajectories? This paper revisits the dominant account of great-power rivalry, contending that the evolution of these relationships is fundamentally influenced by changing perceptions held by both the major powers and by ASEAN itself, especially in relation to regional stability and economic priorities. The study identifies two distinct developmental paths. The China-ASEAN partnership reached a ‘full partnership’ status before subsequently shifting back to an ‘economic partnership’, as growing security tensions have eclipsed their strong economic linkages. In contrast, the Japan-ASEAN relationship has gradually progressed toward a ‘full partnership,’ propelled by Japan’s alignment of its ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP) strategy with ASEAN's Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP). Ultimately, this paper highlights ASEAN's proactive role in guiding its external relations. Rather than remaining simply a passive setting, ASEAN strategically employs its institutional mechanisms and guiding principles, such as ASEAN centrality, to influence its partnerships and safeguard its strategic independence. The findings highlight that an adequate understanding of ASEAN's own policy considerations is critical for any thorough analysis of East Asia's changing regional architecture.
Hur et al. (Tue,) studied this question.