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Electrification is a critical strategy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for light-duty vehicles. We develop a life-cycle assessment (LCA) model for electrified and conventional automobiles to compare their GHG emission impacts. This model considers different perspectives on grid emission attribution and incorporates geographically and temporally differentiated scenarios of vehicle operation, charging, and associated electricity generation, using average and marginal (short- and long-run) emission rates across the US. We illustrate the impact of different LCA accounting choices and the value of charging time optimization for a model year (MY) 2021 sedan vehicle, with analysis extending to MYs 2023, 2024, and 2025. Results show that emissions from battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are equivalent to or lower than those of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) for 68% of the population. This grows to 81% with the strictest charging time optimization and to 100% with aggressive grid decarbonization, or in later MYs, reflecting prevailing market efficiency trends.
Arowosola et al. (Fri,) studied this question.