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Automated vehicles (AVs) may enter the consumer market with various stages of automation in 10 years or even sooner. Meanwhile, regional planning agencies are envisioning plans for time horizons out to 2040 and beyond. To help decision makers understand the effect of AV technology on regional plans, modeling tools should anticipate its impact on transportation networks and traveler choices. This research uses the Seattle, Washington, region's activity-based travel model to test a range of travel behavior impacts from AV technology development. The existing model was not originally designed with AVs in mind, so some modifications to the model assumptions are described in areas of roadway capacity, user values of time, and parking costs. Larger structural model changes were not yet considered. Results of four scenario tests show that improvements in roadway capacity and in the quality of the driving trip may lead to large increases in vehicle miles traveled, while a shift to per mile usage charges may counteract that trend. Travel models will need to have major improvements in the coming years, especially with regard to shared ride, taxi modes, and the effect of multitasking opportunities, to better anticipate the arrival of this technology.
Childress et al. (Thu,) studied this question.