Shattered illusions: Serbia’s denial paradigm and the roadblock to democratic transition

Serbia's authoritarian turn reflects broader global patterns of democratic decline. At the same time, the country continues to struggle with confronting the legacy of the Yugoslav Wars, particularly the denial of the genocide against Bosniaks. We propose a perspective that integrates both areas of research. We argue that authoritarianism in Serbia is deeply connected to a persistent denial of wartime atrocities and to a national self-conception rooted in exceptionalist historical narratives. This self-conception, while hindering the transition to ontological pluralism and thus to a liberal democracy, fosters a form of identitarian democracy that derives its exceptionalism from an unbroken Großraum claim. We first analyse the Greater Serbia mentality as a key political variable, tracing its roots through historical myths and a qualitative content analysis of speeches by Slobodan Milošević. We then link contemporary authoritarianism to the socio-psychological effects of post-Milošević denialism. Finally, we deconstruct the parameters of this self-perception on three different levels through a media content analysis, showing that victimhood narratives are predictors of authoritarian politics.