Predicting Student Dropout from Day One: XGBoost-Based Early Warning System Using Pre-Enrollment Data

Student dropout remains a critical challenge in higher education, especially within public universities that serve diverse and vulnerable populations. This research presents the design and evaluation of an early warning system based on an XGBoost classifier, trained exclusively on data collected at the time of student enrollment. Using a retrospective dataset of nearly 40,000 first-year students (2014–2024) from a Mexican public university, the model incorporated academic, socioeconomic, demographic, and perceptual variables. The final XGBoost model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.6902 and an F1-score of 0.6946 for the dropout class, with a sensitivity of 88%. XGBoost was chosen over Random Forest due to its superior ability to detect students at risk, a critical requirement for early intervention. The model flagged 59% of incoming students as high-risk, with considerable variability across academic programs. The most influential predictors included age, high school GPA, conditioned admission, and other family responsibilities and economic constraints. This research demonstrates that early warning systems can transform enrollment data into timely and actionable insights, enabling universities to identify vulnerable students earlier and respond more effectively, allocate support more efficiently, and enhance their efforts to reduce dropout rates and improve student retention.