Qilian Mountain National Park, an important forest ecosystem in northwest China, plays a crucial role in achieving the national “dual carbon” goals and advancing sustainable forest management. This study focuses on the systematic assessment of forest carbon storage and its market economic value, employing multi-source data fusion and the GARCH-M(1,1) model to integrate forest carbon storage data from 2000 to 2020 with historical trading records from the EU and Chinese carbon markets (2017–2025). The study utilizes three dynamic carbon pricing scenarios—low, medium, and high—to assess the carbon storage capacity and economic value of the park’s forest ecosystems. Results show that forest carbon storage increased by approximately 4.0 × 107 tons, with an average annual growth rate of 0.27%. Under the high carbon pricing scenario in 2025, the forest carbon sink value in the EU market reaches CNY 518.2 billion, approximately 12.5 times that of the Chinese market, highlighting the differences in market maturity and volatility persistence. Through Monte Carlo simulations and dynamic pricing analysis, this research reveals the substantial market potential of Qilian Mountain’s forest carbon sinks, providing data-driven support for regional carbon trading optimization, ecological compensation mechanisms, and sustainable forest management, while contributing to the global carbon trading system and international cooperation in forest-based climate mitigation.
Sun et al. (Sat,) studied this question.