Coping with Persistent Disruptive Stressors and Polycrisis: Community-Based Policy Making and Local Empowerment

Abstract This article describes a conceptual approach for effective, inclusive, and integrative governance to cope with polycrisis and systemic risks. These challenges arise from the high complexity of causal relationships, particularly when multiple risks are interconnected, leading to cascading and cross-boundary impacts. Uncertainty in these relationships further complicates mitigation efforts. Our approach focuses on critical elements of systemic risk governance, particularly the “risk governance triangle,” which connects persistent disruptive stressors, risk-absorbing systems, and contextual modifiers. These stressors can be physical (energy, substance, biota) or social (information, power) and interact with exposed targets influenced by their context. We decompose these circumstances into five layers, forming the Pagoda model: natural conditions, institutional arrangements, technical and social infrastructure, the built environment, and individual/social behavior. A central pillar of our proposal is prioritizing bottom-up policy making, creating common deliberative spaces that actively involve stakeholders and citizens.