Research on the Mechanisms and Pathways of Digital Economy—Driven Agricultural Green Development: Evidence from Sichuan Province, China

This study endeavors to elucidate the mechanisms and pathways through which the digital economy shapes agricultural green development, providing theoretical underpinnings and practical guidance for the green transformation of regional agriculture. (1) Using panel data from 18 prefecture-level cities in Sichuan Province (2013–2022), a comprehensive evaluation index system for agricultural green development was formulated. Fixed-effects, mediating-effects, and threshold-effects models were employed to systematically analyze the direct effects, transmission pathways, and nonlinear characteristics of the digital economy on agricultural green development. (2) The fixed-effects model shows that the digital economy markedly propels agricultural green development in Sichuan Province. The mediating-effects model verifies two transmission pathways: “digital economy → technological progression → agricultural green development” and “digital economy → industrial structure upgrading → agricultural green development”. The threshold-effects model suggests that when the digital economy is in the low-threshold interval, it exerts a suppressive impact on agricultural green development; however, once the threshold is surpassed, its promoting effect strengthens significantly. (3) The results demonstrate the following findings: First, the digital economy exerts a significant positive effect on agricultural green development. Second, this promoting effect exhibits significant nonlinear characteristics that vary with the level of digital economy development. Third, the impact manifests remarkable regional heterogeneity, necessitating context-specific development strategies. (4) Five optimization recommendations are proposed: promote the categorized development of agricultural digital technologies and industrial upgrading; advance digital infrastructure and technology adaptation in phases; design differentiated regional policies; establish a hierarchical and classified long-term guarantee mechanism; and strengthen the “industry-university-research-application” collaborative innovation and dynamic monitoring system.