Abstract This article analyzes regime change in hybrid regimes, focusing on post-communist Southeast Europe, including the former Yugoslav republics and Albania after 1990. It examines the conditions under which these regimes evolve from hybrid forms (electoral authoritarianism) toward weak democracies. The authors identify competitive elections, opposition organization, and mass protest as key variables in this process. However, the authors argue that their effects are multiplicative rather than additive: regime change depends on the interaction among these factors, not their individual strength. The effectiveness of mass protest and opposition mobilization is mutually contingent and shaped by the degree of electoral openness. It is this interplay—between protest intensity, oppositional capacity, and electoral fairness—that critically shapes the prospects for democratic breakthroughs in the region.
Pavlović et al. (Mon,) studied this question.