Evaluation of Predictive models for tomato production and cultivation area in Himachal Pradesh: A Linear and Non- linear approach

This study analyzed the trend in area and production of tomatoes over a time period is important for understanding past behavior and for future planning. Tomato cultivation is highly sensitive to seasonal fluctuations and climatic factors. Therefore, to understand the prior and posterior patterns of tomato cultivation area and production, these statistical models were applied. The statistical study was carried out on different growth models viz. linear, quadratic, cubic, compound, and power for the area and production of tomatoes in Himachal Pradesh for the study period 1995 -2023. The study revealed the cubic and quadratic model was found to best fit the model for area and production, respectively. The highest value of CDVI for the area is 5.40 which indicates higher level of instability in which the variable is more erratic and has less area over time. The increasing annual growth rate for tomato areas is 4.60 percent and 5.90 percent with respect to production of tomatoes over the studied period of time using the compound model. The best-fit statistical models can be used to predict future values with greater accuracy.