Assessment of the impact of losses of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine due to military operations on the level of its national security (2014-2025)

The study focused on analysing the changes in Ukraine’s agricultural sector caused by the hostilities and their implications for national security, as well as finding strategies for the sector’s recovery. This study employed statistical data analysis, comparative analysis, and an assessment of the impact of military operations on various aspects of the Ukrainian agricultural sector to determine the extent of damage and opportunities for recovery. The study found that Ukraine’s agro-industrial complex has suffered extensive losses due to the hostilities, which posed severe risks to the country’s food, economic, social, and environmental security. Specifically, the occupation and hostilities have led to the loss of some agricultural land, its mining and degradation, which has reduced the production of major crops such as wheat, maize, sunflower, barley, and in 2022, about 1.2 mil t of grain could not be stored due to damaged warehouses, and over 30% of elevators were destroyed or damaged, resulting in the loss of another 2.5 mil t of grain. soybeans. The destruction of infrastructure, blocked ports, and logistical problems caused a 60% drop in maize and wheat exports, which reduced foreign exchange earnings and commodity prices – for instance, wheat fell by 25% and maize by 30%. At the same time, massive unemployment in rural areas, a decline in livestock, and a 30% reduction in the number of farms led to an 18.4% decline in meat production and a 14.7% decline in milk production, exacerbating social problems and driving up prices. A labour shortage of more than 300,000 workers reduced agricultural production efficiency by 12%, and cultivated areas decreased by 10-12%. There have also been substantial environmental impacts, including soil and water pollution caused by the hostilities. To minimise these threats, comprehensive measures were needed, including mine clearance, restoration of agricultural infrastructure, diversification of logistics, and state support for agricultural producers. Implementing these measures will help stabilise the situation and ensure the country’s food security. The findings can be used to develop strategies to restore Ukraine’s agricultural sector, increase its resilience to crises, and strengthen national security in the face of military threats