Addressing food security risks due to trade constraints and geopolitical tensions: Conceptual framework and practical application

Abstract International trade is an important factor for ensuring food security in fragile areas. However, nations that are heavily import-dependent can be susceptible to supply chain disruptions due to natural disasters, trade constraints, and geopolitical tensions. This paper presents a conceptual framework for addressing a country’s food security risks in the context of heavy import-dependency and constrained trade. It illustrates the practical application of the framework in the case of Armenia — a country with heavy import-dependence for wheat and with significantly constrained trade due to its geography and regional geopolitics. The food security risk assessment and mitigation framework presented in this paper has four interrelated components: trade, storage, cost, and domestic production. The application to the case of Armenia describes the steps required for operationalizing the framework. The framework and its application can assist the efforts of the international development community, government policy makers, and agri-food industry stakeholders in addressing food security vulnerabilities arising from trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions in fragile regions.