Why we should think about democratic frontsliding as well as democratic backsliding

For the past decade or so, we have been worrying about democratic backsliding – movement toward autocratic rule in nations that we thought were stably democratic. Our attention to backsliding may have distracted us, though, from another important phenomenon – front-sliding, so to speak. If backsliding is a move from democracy toward autocracy, frontsliding is a move from autocracy to democracy. Professors Dan Slater and Joseph Wong’s important book From Development to Democracy offers an elegant argument that sometimes autocrats themselves initiate movement toward democracy even when they are not facing imminent collapse. They show how dominant political parties in South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan gave up a seeming guarantee of remaining in power through continuing repression in order to remain in power through reasonably free and fair elections instead. Their argument, which I outline in Part ii, is that sometimes democracy occurs because the dominant party is strong rather than weak and on the verge of collapse. That opens up the possibility of similar frontsliding transformations in other authoritarian, autocratic, or quasi-autocratic nations, including Singapore and, most intriguingly, China. I examine this possibility in Part iii.