Variation analysis in historical demographic distribution within urban agglomeration: Experimental evidence from the Wuhan “1+8” City Circle

Understanding the spatial distribution of population is crucial in regional research, as it informs the development of effective population policies, long-term regional planning, and the balanced growth of the economy, resources, and environment. This study employs a quantitative approach to construct a research framework using demographic data to elucidate the historical population dynamics within the Wuhan “1+8” City Circle (WCC). The study examines whether the central city and its peripheral cities have experienced coordinated growth or if a town has dominated. The findings reveal several key findings and insights: Wuhan, as the core city of the WCC and the capital of Hubei Province, shows population growth driven not only by natural increases but also by a significant population siphoning effect, with Hongshan of Wuhan experiencing the most pronounced impact; from 2010 to 2020, the WCC’s overall population distribution displayed a dispersal trend, while population density continued to concentrate, particularly around Wuhan and its vicinity, thereby establishing Wuhan as a central population hub. Gender distribution within the WCC generally reflects a higher proportion of males than females, with exceptions in Jiang’an of Wuhan and Huangshigang of Huangshi, where females outnumber males. This pattern may result from attracting male labor to industrial parks and female labor to service sectors. In summary, the WCC needs to refine its regional development strategies, especially for crucial siphoning areas such as Hongshan of Wuhan and Wuchang of Wuhan, to foster balanced regional growth. Additionally, policies to encourage childbirth, enhance elderly care services, and implement a comprehensive population data monitoring and forecasting system are crucial for addressing demographic shifts and achieving sustainable development.