Stratification in Randomised Clinical Trials and Analysis of Covariance: Some Simple Theory and Recommendations

A simple device for balancing for a continuous covariate in clinical trials is to stratify by whether the covariate is above or below some target value, typically the predicted median. This raises an issue as to which model should be used for modelling the effect of treatment on the outcome variable, Y. Should one fit, the stratum indicator, S, the continuous covariate, X, both or neither? This question has been investigated in the literature using simulations targetting the overall effect on inferences about treatment. However, when a covariate is added to a model there are three consequences for inference: 1) The mean square error effect, 2) The variance inflation factor and 3) second order precision. We consider that it is valuable to consider these three factors separately even if, ultimately, it is their joint effect that matters. We present some simple theory, concentrating in particular on the variance inflation factor, that may be used to guide trialists in their choice of model. We also consider the case where the precise form of the relationship between the outcome and the covariate is not known. We conclude by recommending that the continuous coovariate should always be in the model but that, depending on circumstances, there may be some justification in fitting the stratum indicator also.