The repression-dissent nexus in high-threat environments: Evidence from communist Romania

We demonstrate the persistent role of political violence in shaping identities, making people from victimised communities more likely to engage in dissent even in high-threat environments. Theoretically, we argue that extreme repression instills anti-regime hostility that is curated and nurtured over time, making dissent the appropriate form of political behaviour when the opportunity arises, regardless of its consequences. Our research focuses on the Romanian Gulag, a network of labour camps, penal colonies and extermination centres used by the communist regime to suppress opposition, resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths between 1945 and 1965. Using spatial regression and instrumental variable methods, we find that places with Gulag facilities had, on average, 5 times more people injured during the anti-communist revolution of 1989. Bayesian process tracing, conducted in a pathway case selected using causal forests, provides ample evidence in support of our theorised causal mechanism.