Reconstruction of the paleotemperature of the Central Yakutia Ice Complex during the Holocene period

The increase in worldwide temperatures is leading to changes in permafrost landscapes in disturbed areas, which are causing the onset of cryogenic processes. Central Yakutia has a high population density and human impact on the permafrost, which contribute to the widespread occurrence of these processes. Studying the changes in permafrost over past periods is crucial for predicting future landscape changes, monitoring soil temperature changes in current warming conditions, and evaluating the stability of the upper permafrost layer. We reconstructed the temperature regime of the soils in the Ice Complex using mathematical modeling based on the chronology of climate evolution in Central Yakutia during the Holocene. Mathematical modeling of the temperature regime of the ice complex’s soils is based on climatic and thermophysical characteristics of the soils selected from the lithological sections of Central Yakutia. Archive data from weather stations was used for the analysis and sampling of climatic characteristics such as average annual and monthly air temperatures and snow cover thickness. During periods of warming, the calculated ground temperatures at the depth of zero heat turnover were between –2.1 and –2.7 °C, showing a difference of 0.4–1 °C from the current temperatures. Conversely, during cooling periods, the temperatures ranged from –5.2 to –12.3 °C, with a variance of 2.1–9.2 °C from the current soil temperatures. Thus, the examination of computational models indicates that the thermal conditions of the soils within the Ice Complex in Central Yakutia during the most significant periods of the Holocene are impacted by the thickness of the snow cover and the integrity of the Ice Complex.