Food price trends during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil

The present study aims to analyze the trends in food price in Brazil with emphasis on the period of the Covid-19 pandemic (from March 2020 to March 2022). Data from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey and the National System of Consumer Price Indexes were used as input to create a novel data set containing monthly prices (R/Kg) for the foods and beverages most consumed in the country between January 2018 and March 2022. All food items were divided according to the Nova food classification system. We estimated the mean price of each food group for each year of study and the entire period. The monthly price of each group was plotted to analyze changes from January 2018 to March 2022. Fractional polynomial models were used to synthesize price changes up to 2025. Results of the present study showed that in Brazil unprocessed or minimally processed foods and processed culinary ingredients were more affordable than processed and ultra-processed foods. However, trend analyses suggested the reversal of the pricing pattern. The anticipated changes in the prices of minimally processed food relative to ultra-processed food, initially forecasted for Brazil, seem to reflect the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global economy. These results are concerning as the increase in the price of healthy foods aggravates food and nutrition insecurity in Brazil. Additionally, this trend encourages the replacement of traditional meals for the consumption of unhealthy foods, increasing a health risk to the population.