Developments in Global Trade Payments: BRICS, CBDCs, and De-dollarization

The presentation will explore the various reasons for an apparent desire for de-dollarization in relation to the use of the US dollar use in trade payments. The discussion will cover the likely short-term impacts; the potential longer-term impacts of any significant drive for de-dollarization; the reaction and policies of the US, faced with the threat, and the likely global outcomes for the wider use of the dollar in monetary operational structures. While there appears to be no evidence of any current substantial replacement of the dollar either in overall financial transactions or in financial reserves held by central banks, there is evidence of some reduction in the latter. Clearly any geopolitical movement away from the use of the dollar would have considerable ramifications both for the US and for the global monetary economy. The analysis will also examine the differing political and economic motivations of the countries, currently and potentially, involved in the BRICS; the impacts of the expansion of the cross-border use of digital monetary assets and fiat currency CBDC transfers, and competition/ complementarity between private and public monetary channels. The implications for global financial and geopolitical stability of the potential destabilizing impacts of the various pressures for global trade and monetary shifts will be considered, including the regionalization of trade and digital currency areas.