EU Enlargement Policy Goes East: Historical and Comparative Takes on the EU’s Rule of Law Conditionality vis-à-vis Ukraine

Abstract The article discusses a unique case of the EU’s application of rule of law conditionality vis-à-vis Ukraine, while the latter is in active war with Russia. It is demonstrated that the EU utilized momentum, created by the confluence of the invasion and Ukraine’s EU candidateship, to apply ambitious rule of law conditionality in its relations with Ukraine. Despite the unique strategic and political context, the conditionality is path-dependent, strongly relying on the achievements and outstanding tasks of the EU’s pre-war rule of law promotion in Ukraine. Also, both the design and substance of EU conditionality vis-à-vis Ukraine strongly resemble the one the EU applied vis-à-vis Western Balkans. This concerns specifically the contents of conditionality, focusing on building effective anticorruption institutions and judicial reform. Current geostrategic pressures have not yet led to major changes in the philosophy behind the enlargement process or the EU’s framing of the rule of law concept. Yet, changes to be underscored include the EU’s focus on specific benchmarks within pre-defined realms and strong alignment between political and financial instruments.